The Labour Party currently has a 72% chance of winning in the Windsor constituency in the upcoming general election according to predictions from Electoral Calculus. 

Conservatives are projected to receive 31.3% of votes while Labour are predicted to get 40.4% meaning they would have a majority of 9.1% and would win in Windsor for the first time in history. 

Adam Afriyie, who has been the Conservative MP for Windsor since 2005, has decided that he will not run to be re-elected at the upcoming general election. When I questioned him, Afriyie said: “I will have served in Parliament for almost 20 years at the next election and I do feel that it’s time for a new MP to represent the area.”

Afriyie also said: “I am grateful to the residents of the wonderful Windsor constituency for their overwhelming support.”

In September 2023, it was announced that 31-year-old Jack Rankin would succeed Afriyie as the Conservative candidate for the seat. Afriyie said: “Jack Rankin is an excellent local candidate and I hope that he is elected, but no one running for office ever takes winning for granted.” 

The Labour candidate for Windsor is yet to be announced but other opposition to Rankin include the Liberal Democrat candidate Julian Tisi and John Cooper of Reform UK. 

Reform UK are running for the first time in Windsor since their creation in 2018 and are predicted, by Electoral Calculus, to receive 11.6% of the votes. 

Despite the prediction for the Labour Party to receive much support in Windsor and even a majority, many residents including Afriyie himself are dreading this idea and the possibility of Labour forming a government. 

Afriyie said: “I hope and pray that Labour do not form the next Government because I suspect they'll seek to crush business and enterprise, suppress any form of speech or activity with which they disagree, raise taxes, overspend and trash the economy as they always do!” 

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that Labour has the opportunity to make history by winning in Windsor and indeed it is a probability according to current predictions. 

However, whether the “overwhelming support” for the Conservatives in Windsor will come to an end after almost two decades of Afriyie as MP cannot be predicted with any certainty; the race to win Windsor is extremely tight.